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November
17
17
Markets Steadily Improving
Closed sales volume for 2014 is down 1% compared to the first 9 months of 2013 across the region of eastern Iowa, northwestern Illinois and southwestern Wisconsin. This is actually good as we are improving each quarter in the region, but definitely trending in the right direction! Sales Volume Compared to 2013 First Quarter -9% Second Quarter -2% Third Quarter +4% Year-to-Date -1% What is happening in our markets?
- "Sluggishness in the general economy with lower than expected job growth, stagnant household income and tight credit conditions are taking the expected toll on housing sales," said Steve Murray, editor of the REAL Trends Housing Market Report.
- First-time home purchases are at historic lows. They have accounted for only 28% of existing home sales year to date, according to the National Association of Realtors. This is six percentage points below the 5-year average. The economic slowdown has been especially tough on 24-35 year olds. Many recent college graduates have crushing levels of student debt, and are frustrated with the challenging job market. Additionally, FHA fees and premiums have increased, hurting buyer's ability to qualify for loans. Thankfully both Iowa and Illinois offer attractive first-time buyer bond programs. None the less, Ruhl&Ruhl's first-time buyers only accounted for 24% of our total buyers, down from 26% last year.
- It is tougher to get a mortgage. In recent testimony before Congress, Federal Reserve chairwoman Janet Yellen stated: "It has now become the case that any borrower without a pretty pristine credit rating finds it awfully hard to get a mortgage."
- Slow but steady climb in home price appreciation in our markets.
- Good inventory and homes for sale. Months of inventory is a good way to measure the strength of a market. Our markets are shown below – some are buyers markets and most are considered balanced markets, favoring neither the buyer nor the seller.
- Great low interest rates continue. At the time of this writing, rates were in the following ranges, with no points: 30-year conventional fixed 4.00% 15-year conventional fixed 3.375% 30-year FHA/VA 3.75% 5/1 ARM (adjustable rate mortgage) 3.00% We know these great rates can't go on forever so hopefully buyers will seize this opportunity.
So we expect a strong fourth quarter, but as predicted in January, due to the tough winter we expect 2014 to end flat compared to 2013.
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